1. Michigan at Penn State
LINE Michigan -1.5
ATS PICK Michigan
Okay, listen to me very, very carefully.
For a whole variety of reasons – crazy unders, Kansas covering the spread for the first time in two years, Army throwing the ball effectively in the final meaningless moments in a loss, a few late line shifts, famine, plagues, pestilence – this pick in the No. 1 spot has been a bomb over the last several weeks.
Now, if you believe that you never, ever, ever mess with a streak – including a losing one like this No. 1 pick is on – you ride that thing out until it stops. You have my permission since all that really matters is your happiness.
As an investor, finding something consistent is everything, and this pick has certainly been that.
However, part of the streak being the streak is that the pick has to be sincere. I can’t just do the George Costanza opposite thing and try to make a prediction that will somehow go horribly wrong in new and creative ways.
You do you – I’m still going full steam ahead with my No. 1 pick, so …
I don’t believe in Penn State.
I think it deserves to be in the College Football Playoff top 25, WR Jahan Dotson is amazing, and there are a whole lot of excellent parts, but you don’t lose to Illinois if everything is going well.
You don’t lose to Iowa, even if your starting quarterback gets knocked out of the game.
The Ohio State performance was fine, but Ohio State is probably a whole lot more overrated than the puffed up blowouts over bad teams might indicate.
Maybe I’m missing something massive – the wins over Wisconsin and Auburn early on were strong – but beating Maryland last week just doesn’t do it.
The Nittany Lions can’t run the ball – under 100 yards in six of the nine games – and Michigan’s run defense hasn’t had much of a problem against anyone but Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker.
How good is the Wolverine offense? Wisconsin’s defense is coming up with a historically great run, and Michigan is the only team to amass more than 300 yards against it.
1.5 is basically a pick ’em game. Michigan is the better team, it’s playing angry, it has the lines to hold up and …
I just picked Michigan to win in the No. 1 slot in this piece.
Do with that what you must.
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