San Francisco 49ers v. Kansas City Chiefs -1.5

Over – Under 54.5

Expect the Chiefs to come out and attack the edges. There will be a lot of screens. Andy Reid loves screens. Patrick Mahomes will attack the Niners cover three and they’ll try to get Tyreek Hill in space. The Chiefs are 12-5-1 against the spread this season.

Expect the Niners to try and run the football, but they will also use play-action and disguise their offense through pre-snap motion. Tyrann Mathieu will probably match up with George Kittle. The Niners wide receivers will have to figure out a way to beat the Chiefs corners. Sanders did that when he was with the Broncos, and he can do it with the Chiefs. Samuel will act as a big body. The Niners will also try to get him the ball through jet sweeps and reverses. San Fransisco is 11-6-1 against the spread this season.

It really comes down to defense. The Chiefs actually gave up fewer points per game — by 0.1 points — this season compared to the Niners. That’s odd to think about. The Niners obviously have better talent on defense. They have the speed to try and contain Mahomes who is sneaky elusive. We’ve seen it before.

As odd as this sounds, the Niners have the edge when it comes to coaching. For some reason, Andy Reid hasn’t been able to get the Chiefs to start quickly. His clock management issues that have plagued him his entire career are still a factor. That’s slightly important in what is expected to be a close game. Kyle Shanahan has his own demons. He was the offensive coordinator when the Patriots came back from 28-3. That’s one anecdotal data point. He’s been amazing all season — his first full season with a healthy quarterback and a good defense.

This game should be close, but here’s the one thing I keep thinking about when making a decision. The Niners essentially lost their three games this season by seven points. Yes, I know they lost by more than that against the Falcons, but that was on a fluke play. They lost to the Seahawks in overtime. They lost to the Ravens on a last-second field goal. We’ve reviewed the Falcons. San Francisco could have gone undefeated. The Chiefs can’t fall behind. The 49ers are too good to do that against.

Final Score: San Francisco 49ers 30 Kansas City Chiefs 28